DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/18 11:19
Grains Mixed at Midday
Trade is mostly lower at midday, with soybeans edging back positive.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 360 higher. The dollar
index is 15 higher. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are firmer with
crude 2.15 higher. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are firmer
with gold 11.80 higher.
Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade firming back from dime
lower trade overnight with bull spreading returning. The forecast looks to
continue the recent pattern into the first part of the week, before potential
pattern changes into the end of the month. Ethanol margins will remain tight,
with the blenders being squeezed more, with ethanol futures at the upper end of
the recent range, holding 1.62. The weekly crop progress showed planting
progress at 92% vs. 100% on average, with emergence at 79% vs. 97% on average,
with 59% good to excellent, and 10% poor to very poor, up 1% from last week. On
the July nearby chart support is the 10-day at $4.32, with the new high printed
Monday at $4.64 resistance.
Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with trade fading from the
initial gains after the progress report. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 lower and oil
is 20 to 30 points higher. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with
meal just above $320, with meal softening relative to oil. NOPA crush
disappointed at 154.8 million bushels. World export demand remains slow, and
the South American currencies cheap but firmer today. Field work will likely be
slowed again in many areas with more insurance days passing for soybeans before
potential more open weather at the end of the month. Weekly crop progress
showed planting at 77% vs. 93% last year, and emergence at 55% vs. 84% last
year. The July chart support is the 100-day at $8.95, with next resistance the
$9.21 overnight high.
Wheat trade is 5 to 10 cents lower at midday with the winter wheats seeing
bigger selling after failing to hold gains yesterday. The Kansas City/Chicago
spread is swing back to Chicago again today. The heavy rains are slated more
for the north and east parts of the winter wheat belt while harvest should
build elsewhere, with heat expected to help push things along to the west. The
dollar moved back above 97 on the index as well. Black Sea area weather remains
mixed with world values soft. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in
some areas with the bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may increase
feeding on that front. Weekly crop progress showed winter wheat 64% good to
excellent, and 10% poor to very poor, with 89% headed vs. 94% on average, and
8% harvested vs. 20% on average. Spring wheat was 77% good to excellent, and 2%
poor to very poor, down 4% on the week, with 95% emerged vs. 97% on average. On
the July Kansas City chart, support is the 100-day at $4.55. then the 10-day at
4.62, with the upper Bollinger Band at $4.92 as resistance.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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