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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          09/22 12:24

   The Lean Hog is Pulling in Trader's Interest

   Tuesday is shaping up to be another downward-pressuring day for the cattle 
contracts as traders look to the lean hog market as see more short-term 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

   General Comments

   As Tuesday progresses, aspirations throughout the lean hog market continue 
to grow as traders see the potential for a strong export market and see 
continued follow through as packers keep moving the cash market steadily 
higher. Meanwhile the cattle sector sits with the opposite equation; not able 
to rally trader interest has left the complex scaling lower and the cash cattle 
market remains unchanged. December corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and 
December soybean meal is up $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 
26.71 points and NASDAQ is up 60.64 points.


   The live cattle sector isn't as volatile to the day's lack of support as 
much as the feeder cattle market is. October live cattle are down $0.35 at 
$106.35, December live cattle are down $0.52 at $110.07 and February live 
cattle are down $0.97 at $114.27. The week is gearing up to be another week of 
standoff trade for the cash cattle market as bids are illusive, and feeders are 
nonchalant about developing their asking prices. Again, feeders know that they 
can easily roll their showlists to next week if they don't receive the prices 
they need. Working against feeder's ability to move the market higher is the 
weaker futures market along with the vulnerability that comes with the Cattle 
on Feed Report.

   Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.92 ($215.30) and select up $0.80 
($206.62) with a movement of 100 loads (77.54 loads of choice, 12.24 loads of 
select, zero loads of trim and 10.01 loads of ground beef).


   Feeder cattle contracts are feeling even more pressure than what Monday 
initially sprung on the complex as most of the market scales $1.40 to $1.67 
lower. October feeders are down $1.65 at $140.60, November feeders are down 
$1.62 at $141.10 and January feeders are down $1.40 at $139.47. The market is 
suffering from a lack of trader interest as traders see opportunity in the lean 
hog market as opposed to the cattle market.


   As Tuesday moves into the afternoon, the lean hog market is seeing more and 
more support develop throughout the nearby contracts. October lean hogs are up 
$3.00 at $68.60, December lean hogs are up $2.85 at $64.45 and February lean 
hogs are up $2.37 at $69.60. Thursday's export report is going to be highly 
sought after as the market anticipates export demand flourishing at some point 
in the near future but is still unable to pinpoint when that time will be.

   The projected lean hog index for 9/21/2020 is up $0.88 at $72.17 and the 
actual index for 9/18/2020 is up $1.71 at $71.29. Hog prices are higher on the 
National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.16 with a weighted average of $62.15, 
ranging from $58.00 to $65.00 on 6,358 head and a five-day rolling average of 
$60.42. Pork cutouts total 226.96 loads with 210.92 loads of pork cuts and 
16.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.17, $94.26.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached


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